The “next big thing” typically arrives with a great deal of fanfare, along with proclamations about how our lives will suddenly change for the better. What follows, however, is often disappointment as reality fails to live up to the hype.
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| Inventor Dean Kamen on a Segway Scooter |
The two-wheeled Segway scooter, for example, was introduced in 2001 on Good Morning America and hailed as a device that would revolutionize transportation. Its inventor, Dean Kamen, said that the Segway would be to the car what the car was to the horse and buggy. Venture capitalist John Doerr said it would be bigger than the internet. Kamen expected that within a year, the company would be producing 10,000 units per week. [1]
While it was an amazing piece of engineering, it was also expensive to buy, unwieldy to use on crowded sidewalks, and more dangerous than its promoters anticipated. President George W. Bush famously tried a Segway scooter and fell awkwardly (and very publicly). Ironically, the one-time owner of the company, Jimi Heselden died in a Segway accident when his scooter apparently veered off the path into a lake. By the time production ended in 2020, only 140,000 units had been sold. That is a rate just over one percent of what was initially projected.
More commonly, the initial hype of new technology is followed by a lackluster period in which only a small group of pioneers become enthusiastic users. Eventually the bugs are worked out, a mass market develops and the technology does indeed end up changing our lives. I can remember early cellphone users carrying a device the size of a brick with a two-foot collapsible antenna, and thinking it was stupid looking and completely impractical. Now, of course, I rarely leave home without my cellphone in my pocket – not so much because I’m constantly calling people but because of the computing power and data access that cellular phone technology eventually enabled.
If we think of technological impact as a continuum of Segway-like failure to cellphone-like success, I suspect many people in the U.S. would put electric vehicles toward the Segway end of the spectrum. After all, EVs in this country got off to a start that was far more hype than substance. General Motors is generally credited with building the first electric vehicle available for the public to drive. The EV1 was released in 1996 to mostly positive reviews but total production barely broke 1,000 units before being cancelled in 1999. Tesla started selling cars in 2008 with the Tesla Roadster which had what was regarded as cutting edge technology. Initial volume, however, was low and the lack of a widespread charging network held back growth.
The Roadster was followed by the Model S in 2012 and the Model X in 2015, both of which sold in much greater numbers. The Model S was the top selling electric vehicle globally in 2015 and 2016. In 2017, Tesla started selling the Model 3 and in 2019 the closely related Model Y. In the first quarter of 2023, the Model Y was briefly the world’s best selling car – the first electric vehicle to claim that title.
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| Tesla Model Y |
Despite this apparent success, there continues to be a perception in the U.S. that electric vehicles are more feathers than chicken. To begin with, Tesla owes a significant part of its success to a $465-million loan from the Department of Energy and to generous government incentives, such as the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S (now no longer available). Second, the U.S. share of new car sales that were electric vehicles rose to nearly 10 percent in 2024, but has since fallen to roughly 7.5 percent. Third, many electric vehicles have been discontinued over the past few years such as the Tesla Models S and X, the Ford F-150 Lightning, the Nissan Ariya, and the Acura ZDX to name just a few. Fourth, only one-third of Americans think switching to an EV would save them money (in fact, a typical switch would save between $500 and $1,500 per year). [2] Finally, the company that sells the most electric vehicles in this country by far – Tesla – seems to have lost its mojo. The Cybertruck was a flop, total vehicle sales are down, profits are falling and Elon Musk seems more focused on robots and AI than cars. No wonder some people are willing to write off EVs as a fad that has passed.
A Warped View of Reality
A more accurate assessment is that, while there are some challenges, the global electric vehicle industry is actually thriving. It is largely just U.S. citizens that are skeptical of EVs – perhaps due to misleading narratives tied to the oil and gas industry and the current federal administration. The global share of total new car sales represented by battery-powered EVs and plug-in hybrids has climbed rapidly and continuously over the past 10 years and the ratio has nearly tripled in the past three years. [3] The global EV share of new vehicle sales now exceeds 20 percent.
While much of this growth has been driven by China, which is by far the largest producer of electric vehicles, they are certainly not alone. In Norway, for example, the EV share of new car purchases is over 90 percent. In Great Britain, the share is over 30 percent and the rest of the EU is over 25 percent. Even less developed countries are jumping on board, with the EV share in Vietnam approaching 40 percent and Uruguay’s share approaching 30 percent. Third-world governments are realizing that EVs not only save money for their residents, but reduce the need for imported oil. In addition, the relative simplicity of electric vehicles means that there are opportunities for local vehicle manufacturing even in countries that aren’t heavily industrialized.
Even in the U.S. the situation isn’t as bad as the general perception would have you believe. Yes, the elimination of the $7,500 tax credit caused EV sales to dip and several EV models to be discontinued, but other aspects of the U.S. market are doing just fine. While Tesla sales were down, they still sold nearly 600,000 vehicles in the U.S. and 1.6 million vehicles worldwide, good enough for 10th place among all vehicle manufacturers.
Other companies have quietly built a lucrative niche in the U.S. with electric vehicles despite the challenging environment. Cadillac, for example, has five electric vehicles in its lineup and sold nearly 10,000 units in the first quarter of 2026 (up 20 percent year-over-year). EV sales represent roughly 25 to 30 percent of total volume for Cadillac in the U.S. [4] Perhaps more importantly, nearly 75 percent of Cadillac EV buyers are coming from different brands – a statistic any vehicle manufacturer would covet.
Not only is the industry in good shape currently, but I believe that technological trends are pointing toward electric vehicles capturing more than 50 percent of global sales within the next five years. Even in the U.S. I think that the EV sales share will be nearing 40 percent during that same time span. The industry is nearing a tipping point driven by dramatic improvements in battery technology such that only diehard internal combustion fans (or people who struggle with change) will be able to overlook the advantages that electric vehicles offer.
What Is Coming
Skeptics of electric vehicles have a long list of perceived performance flaws which they use to dismiss any thought of switching from their internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle:
Limited range;
Slow recharging time;
Poor performance in cold weather;
High cost;
Safety concerns (primarily fire hazards);
Environmental concerns over mining battery chemicals; and
Limited availability of charging stations.
All of these issues, except the limited charging network, are really battery issues and most of the people citing these issues haven’t kept up with the steady improvement in all of these factors over the past couple of years.
For example, the latest generation of lithium batteries, known as LFP (lithium-iron-phosphate), has already addressed several of the perceived flaws. LFP batteries are far less likely to catch fire even if punctured or crushed, and their cycle life is three to six times longer. In addition, the use of lead and phosphate instead of less available cobalt or nickel means that costs are lower. Finally, LFP batteries can be discharged down to zero without harming their lifespan while traditional lithium batteries often limited their depth of discharge to 20 percent.
The first of the next generation of battery technologies that seems likely to make a significant impact is known as sodium ion. Sodium is chemically similar to lithium which means battery design and manufacturing can piggyback off of current lithium ion processes. Sodium, however, is about 1,000 times more abundant than lithium which means it is generally less expensive and less prone to political disruption by the countries where lithium is currently produced. [5]
Compared with traditional lithium batteries, sodium ion batteries are much less fire prone, can be discharged to zero, and operate efficiently even in sub-zero temperatures. In addition, sodium ion batteries can be recharged much faster. A sodium ion powered vehicle could potentially be recharged from 10 percent to 80 percent in 10 to 15 minutes with a DC fast charger.
The primary downside is that sodium ion batteries are traditionally less energy dense than lithium ion meaning that a larger battery would be required to reach the same vehicle range. That disadvantage is shrinking, however, as new designs are moving from the lab into production. In two or three years, the energy density of sodium ion batteries may match lithium ion designs. What I think is likely to happen is that sodium ion technology will usher in a spectrum of new electric vehicle designs (both 2-wheel and 4-wheel) focused on lower cost and short- to moderate-range needs. This would be a good fit for many smaller and less affluent countries, or for users in urban settings where long range isn’t typically required and recharging options are plentiful.
The second battery technology that is likely to appear in the next few years is known as a solid-state battery. All batteries have an electrolyte through which the ions pass between the anode and cathode. As the name suggests, solid-state batteries replace the liquid electrolyte of traditional lithium ion batteries with a solid material – typically some type of ceramic or polymer. Liquid electrolytes are the source of the fire hazards that EVs with lithium ion batteries currently contend with, but that hazard goes away with solid-state materials.
Solid-state batteries are both smaller and more energy dense than other types of batteries which means that future EVs could have ranges between 500 and 800 miles. [6] In addition, this technology can handle much higher charging voltages which means potential recharging times could be reduced to just 5 to 10 minutes.
The downside is that solid state batteries are difficult to mass produce in a form that can handle the rigors of a vehicular environment and which can last for thousands of charging cycles. Consequently, electric vehicles with solid-state batteries are not likely to be commonplace for two or three more years and are likely to be relatively expensive initially. As with almost all technologies, costs will decline over time as manufacturing processes are optimized and volume scales up.
There are other battery technologies that are under development currently that may eventually surpass both the sodium ion and solid state designs. The potential payoff from a successful battery design is so enormous that the industry spends billions annually on research and development. In the foreseeable future, however, sodium ion or solid-state batteries (or some hybrid design) are likely to be the predominant options. Solid-state designs in particular are considered the “holy grail” because the combination of safety, long range and quick charging answers virtually all of the major objections that most people have regarding EVs.
The Case for Electric Vehicles
Once you get past the issues related to batteries, the advantages of EVs are compelling enough that even skeptics are likely to switch away from internal combustion engines in large numbers. An electric vehicle won’t meet everyone’s needs, but I think it will become the default choice for new cars within 10 years. As with just about every type of new technology, quality and performance will ramp up quickly and prices will decline as production processes are standardized and production volumes increase. Here are some of the factors that will push buyers towards EVs:
Simplicity. The drive-train of an electric vehicle has just 10 to 12 percent as many moving parts as the drive-train of a traditional ICE powered car. That translates into less maintenance and higher reliability – which in turn means lower life-cycle costs for EVs.
Efficiency. A typical vehicle powered by an internal combustion engine converts between 16 to 30 percent of the energy in its fuel to the propulsion of the vehicle, with the remainder being lost to friction and heat. In contrast, an electric vehicle converts about 85 to 90 percent of the battery’s energy into movement. This difference has an obvious impact on operational costs (along with many other factors), but it also means that EVs run a lot cooler – enough that ambient temperatures in dense urban areas might actually decline slightly.
Noise. Yes, some aficionados will undoubtedly miss the roar of a gas engine, but I suspect most people will end up preferring a car that glides quietly down the road. I don’t know if anyone has calculated the impact on urban noise levels but I suspect that it will be noticeable, particularly near signalized intersections where there is currently a wave of vehicles accelerating every thirty seconds or so.
Pollution. Vehicle manufacturers have made enormous progress reducing the amount of pollutants generated by gas and diesel engines, but pollution is still an issue to some degree and it has an impact on the respiratory health of city residents. Electric vehicles produce virtually no pollution at the point of the car, and as the electrical grid gets greener total EV pollution levels will drop over time. On a related note, since EVs aren’t carrying around 20 gallons of gas and 10 quarts of oil, there will be less odor in your garage, fewer stains on your driveway, and fewer petroleum products getting washed into streams and rivers.
Vehicle configuration. There have been quite a few designs tried for vehicles with internal combustion engines, but the basic requirements of an engine, transmission and drive shaft (not to mention a radiator and large gas tank) limit the design choices that are economically feasible. EV batteries are also a limiting factor but they can be split into modules if necessary, or even integrated with the structure of the vehicle. Similarly, electric motors are much more compact than gas engines and have much simpler transmissions. Consequently, the switch to EVs is likely to foster more innovation in vehicle designs, resulting in options that better match consumer needs.
Driveability. This is admittedly a subjective measure, but the instant torque from electric motors and the low center of gravity from the battery pack give EVs both rapid acceleration and stable handling that many people appreciate.
Mobile power source. The battery packs in electric vehicles can supply power like a portable generator except without the noise, fumes and refueling needs. At the extreme end, some EVs can power an entire home for a couple of days. Known as a vehicle-to-home (V2H) connection, the EV basically acts as a home battery when the electrical grid is down. Only a few EVs currently support this option and the necessary modifications to your home’s electrical panel and grid connection can cost $4,000 to $8,000. Far more common is a vehicle-to-load (V2L) connection that is simply one or more standard outlets on the EV which (along with a couple of extension cords) can power home medical devices, refrigerators, or small space heaters for several days if needed. Similarly, an EV can power lights, fans and a mini-frig at a campsite or various power tools at a work site. [7]
There are, of course, some disadvantages to electric vehicles other than the ones mentioned earlier, but they tend to be relatively minor. Tires, for example, tend to wear out more quickly because of the added weight of the battery packs (EVs are 15 to 20 percent heavier than equivalent ICE vehicles). In addition, insurance tends to be more expensive because EVs that have been in an accident have proven harder to repair (or perhaps current body shops are less equipped to repair them).
Finally, there is the perceived lack of charging stations – a problem that is not too dissimilar from the lack of gas stations a hundred years ago when traditional automobiles first became widely available. Currently, there are about 85,000 charging stations comprising roughly 230,000 charging ports. Of this amount, over 45,000 ports are of the DC Fast Charging (Level 3) variety that you would want to find if you were on a road trip. The remaining ports are largely Level 2 which would be useful at a hotel where you are staying the night or at your workplace where you could recharge for several hours. On a day-to-day basis, of course, many EVs are going to be charged overnight with residential Level 2 connections so that public charging stations will be needed only on long trips.
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| A Charging Station at a Community Center |
These numbers are changing almost daily as businesses and public institutions see the advantages of providing charging services for their clientele. Walmart, for example, recently started installing fast Level 3 chargers at its stores across the country. When battery technology improves to the point that charging takes only 10 minutes or so, thousands of businesses will become viable locations for charging facilities.
The Bottom Line
Electric vehicles won’t be as life changing as the internet, smartphones or artificial intelligence but they have enough advantages that replacing the current internal combustion engine technology will seem like a fairly obvious decision once the next generation of batteries are widespread. Lithium ion batteries made electric vehicles possible but came with notable limitations. As battery technology improves, those limitations will quickly fade and the tipping point is closer than most people realize.
